2018-06-01

Durak Win Rate Analysis

Analyzing the win rate for strategies in the Russian game Durak (Fool)

As a fond player of the Russian game Durak, I wanted to test how much of the game is Strategy versus Chance.
I paired a "Beginner" and an "Expert" against each other in a series of simulated millions of games.
The Beginner simply attacked and defended with the smallest playable card.
The Expert used every single strategy possible to win.
After much trial and error, I found strategies that increased the chances of winning, and ones that didn't.
This game was "Reversable Durak", meaning the defender can reverse the cards back at the attacker, if the defender has a matching card.
Unlike most online Durak games, I made sure that the computer never "cheated".
The players were only provided the following information:
  • The players' own cards
  • The cards that are currently being played on the table
  • The Trump/Kozer
  • How many cards are left in the deck
The players had no ability to look into the opponent's cards, the deck's cards, or the beaten "out" deck.
The players also had no ability to remember old played cards.
I did this because human players don't have the ability to remember all old cards, so it's unfair for a computer to do it.


Check out the code and analysis here - https://github.com/veniamin-ilmer/durak-analysis

2018-05-16

Learning to Read and Write Chinese

I enjoy learning languages. Some examples of languages I played with were Spanish, German, Esperanto.. I even dabbed into Hebrew, and ancient Greek.

I've made a few observations about my language learning:
  • Synthetic languages, like German or Russian are harder for me to remember, due to the memorization of the long words and spelling involved.
  • I pick up how to recognize characters relatively quickly. For example, I learned how to recognize Hebrew script in about a day. Same with Greek letters.
These two points made me interested in Chinese.
Chinese is an Analytic language, and involves recognition of lots and lots of characters.
Instead of spelling, you're drawing a picture.

And so, two weeks ago I embarked on trying to learn Chinese... And quickly, I ran into problems.

The main reason I decide to try out Chinese, was because I think I can pick up reading characters quickly.
Yet, most of the time learning tools are built to value speaking more important than reading/writing.
The Chinese character is almost looked at as an inconvenience, due to it being difficult to type using Chinese characters online.

With focus on speaking more than reading/writing, a lot of words are taught as a combination of multiple Chinese characters, without breaking down what each character means.
For example, they may teach 名字 means "First Name", without explaining what does 名 or 字 mean.
And just to let you know, neither 名 nor 字 means "First" or "Given" or "Nick".

As someone trying to read and write each character, this makes it very difficult to learn.

And so, I came up with my own system to learn these.
Using various language learning tools, I build up a list of new vocabulary words per subject.
I then load up the vocabulary into quizlet.
I break up the subject into two sections: Learning the characters independently, and then combining the characters together to form new words.
Finally, and most importantly, I open the quizlet app on my phone.

Writing in Chinese on the phone is the best part.
You can configure your phone to write in Chinese... Not by typing, but by literally drawing each character with your finger.
Not only did writing in Chinese characters help me recognize them easily, but it also taught me about the correct stroke order that you're supposed to write in.
Through trial and error, I got good at it. And Android's AI got better at recognizing my hand writing.

I've made my study sets available to the public. They can be accessed here:
https://quizlet.com/litehacker
The desktop version of quizlet is a little slow/bugging, but the phone app version is amazing. I highly recommend opening it on the phone and configuring the chinese language input to be in written form.

Start with Unit 1, and keep going up in numbers. For each unit "A" contains the individual characters, while units with "B" contains a combination of those characters. This makes the transition to learning more complicated character combinations much more simple.

I'm in the process of adding more and more vocabulary.
The most difficult problem with Chinese is that frequently words are taught without breaking down the characters.
Most of my time and effort is spending time deciphering what each character individually means.
Once I have done the research, I add them to the list.

I hope in the future to be able to read Chinese websites, and find out what that closed off side of the world is all about.

2018-03-09

Study Review: Linoleate-Rich High-Fat Diet Decreases Mortality in Hypertensive Heart Failure Rats Compared With Lard and Low-Fat Diets

Study: http://hyper.ahajournals.org/content/hypertensionaha/52/3/549.full.pdf

Energy Macro Percent Usage
DietCarbsFatsProtein
Lard43.5%42.2%14.3%
HLSO43.5%42.2%14.3%

Historic charts show rats fed HLSO had a longer lifespan than rats fed lard.

CriteriaScoreComments
One Constant Macro****Article notes both diets to be exactly the same, but does not detail formulation.
Constant Nutrients + Fiber***No breakdown of food provided. Article states that all diets were based on the "Purina 5001", but purina's official datasheet differs.
Number of animals per diet****13, 13, and 16 rats used.
Length of Study*****The whole length of the rat's life.
Funding Bias*****Grants from American Heart Association and NIH
Total4.2Good Quality Study

2018-03-06

Study Review: Life-Span Extension in Mice by Preweaning Food Restriction and by Methionine Restriction in Middle Age

Study: http://www.pkdiet.com/pdf/LifeExtMice.pdf

Energy Macro Percent Usage
DietCarbsFatsProtein
0.43% Methionine69.6%8.1%12.5%
0.15% Methionine69.9%8.1%12.3%

Historic charts show Methionine restricted mice lived longer.

CriteriaScoreComments
One Constant Macro*****Diets were almost identical, with exception of the Methionine.
Constant Nutrients + Fiber*****Diets were almost identical, with exception of the Methionine.
Number of animals per diet*****43 mice were used per diet.
Length of Study*****1200+ days. The whole length of the mouse life.
Funding Bias*****NIA grants and American Federation for Aging Research Grant
Total5.0Good Quality Study

2018-03-03

Study Review: Fructose decreases physical activity and increases body fat without affecting hippocampal neurogenesis and learning relative to an isocaloric glucose diet

Study: https://www.nature.com/articles/srep09589.pdf

Energy Macro Percent Usage
DietCarbsFatsProtein
Glucose62.5%18.3%19.2%
Fructose62.3%18.2%19.5%

Historical charts show the Fructose fed mice had more weight gain, and were less active than the Glucose fed mouse.

One Constant Macro*****Cumulative change of all macros is 0.6%
Constant Nutrients + Fiber*****Vitamins, Minerals, and Fiber was the same.
Number of animals per diet***12 animals per diet
Length of Study*77 days
Funding Bias*****Grant from Center for Nutrition, Learning and Memory
Total3.8Fair Quality Study

Study Review: High saturated fat and low carbohydrate diet decreases lifespan independent of body weight in mice

Study: http://europepmc.org/backend/ptpmcrender.fcgi?accid=PMC3922950&blobtype=pdf

Energy Macro Percent Usage
DietCarbsFatsProtein
Control Diet60%15%25%
High Fat Diet15%60%25%

Historical charts show the high fat fed mice had more weight gain and a shorter lifespan.

One Constant Macro*****Protein stays the same
Constant Nutrients + Fiber*****"Both diets were formulated in our laboratory and contained standard vitamins and minerals mixed with all essentials nutrients"
Number of animals per diet****12-13 animals per diet
Length of Study*****27 months
Funding Bias*****Grants by Brasil-Swiss Program and CNPq
Total4.8High Quality Study

Study Review: Severe NAFLD with hepatic necroinflammatory changes in mice fed trans fats and a high-fructose corn syrup equivalent

Study: http://www.physiology.org/doi/pdf/10.1152/ajpgi.90272.2008

Energy Macro Percent Usage
DietCarbsFatsProtein
Standard Chow (2018S)58%18%24%
Fast-food (TD.06303)37.1%45.3%17.6%


One Constant Macro**Protein changes by 6.4%
Constant Nutrients + Fiber*Completely different vitamins and minerals.
Number of animals per diet***8-10 animals per diet
Length of Study**16 weeks
Funding Bias*****Grants by Saint Louis University Liver Center.
Total2.6Poor Quality Study

2018-03-02

Study Review: A high-fat, ketogenic diet induces a unique metabolic state in mice

Study: http://www.physiology.org/doi/pdf/10.1152/ajpendo.00717.2006

Energy Macro Percent Usage
DietCarbsFatsProtein
Standard Chow (LabDiet 5008)56.5%16.97%26.53%
High Fat (D12451)35%45%20%
Ketogenic (F3666)1.8%93.4%4.7%

Historical charts show Keto diet seems to have same weight as calorie restriction even though Keto calorie consumption was similar to normal diet.

One Constant Macro*Protein changes by >10%
Constant Nutrients + Fiber*Completely different vitamins and minerals. Diets were from different vendors.
Number of animals per diet***8 animals per diet
Length of Study**Over 120 days.
Funding Bias*****Grants by National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, and by Takeda pharmaceuticals.
Total2.4Poor Quality Study

2018-03-01

My experience as a manager

A great analogy, if you'd like to know how it feels to be a manager:

Imagine moving out of your parents' place and living on your own.
You sleep when you want, eat when you want, and not need to warn anyone that you'll be coming home late.

With all that freedom, you also have to make choices:
  • What time should I eat every day?
  • What should I eat?
  • When should I wash my clothes?
  • When should I sleep?
Before, things were easy.. Got a problem you can't fix? Ask your parents.
Need to be picked up from somewhere? Call your parents.
They will need to figure something out.

But now you're on your own.
Got a problem you can't fix? Well if you don't fix it, no one else will.

I'd say something very similar happens in the workplace.
Are you a non-manager employee? Then you don't have to make big choices.
Have an unusual problem? Customer's getting angry? Call the manager!
Don't know what to do? Call the manager!

What if you become the manager?
You become the decision maker, and you are the one responsible.

Want to assign someone work? Go ahead. They'll do it.
Didn't assign anyone to some work? It won't be done.
Was a client expecting it to be done 2 weeks ago? That's your problem.

It's your task to be good at resource management, and estimating how long it'll take to get something done. You need to manage client expectations.

Most of your time spent will be working with clients, figuring out what needs to get done.
By clients, I mean anyone outside your team.
That may mean actual customers/clients outside the company, but it may also mean working with managers from other teams.

If you're wondering what goes on in these calls between managers, lets go back to the analogy of living on your own.

Except now you're living with roommates.. And you guys need to figure out who's going to be:
  • Washing the dishes 
  • Throwing out the trash
  • Cleaning the floor
  • Getting the mail
Is everyone going to take turns doing all the tasks?
Is everyone going to have designated tasks?
Will one guy get away with not doing anything?

Also, you have to make sure someone else isn't doing your work.
Is your roommate throwing out the trash instead of you?
Does he keep forgetting to place a new bag into the trash bin?
Well everyone's going to blame you, because you're the designated guy that throws out the trash.

You'll have to meet, and figure out, either:
  • He will need to take on the responsibility of placing a new bag too, replacing your duties. 
  • He will have to signal to you when he's taken out the trash, so you place a new bag in right after.. 
  • He stops taking out the trash, and you do that instead, so others stop blaming you for not having a bag there.
All of this sounds like silly small details, but it builds up over time, especially if you have lots of stuff to get done.

As a manager, you will need to negotiate with all the other managers/clients what your team will be doing.
If your team ends up doing more/harder/tedious/useless work than other teams, it will be your fault, because that's the result of your poor negotiation skills.

Managing client expectations, negotiating with the clients, all of this work might leave you tied to the phone and meetings all day.
You have to keep making sure your team doesn't get overloaded.

Oh and by the way, as a manager, you have to be self sufficient. You can't depend on your manager to get things done. Especially if your boss is a director. They don't want to have anything to do with your problems.
They have their own problems to deal with.
It's like complaining to your housing agency that your roommates are misbehaving. The agency has other things to worry about:
  • Managing payments
  • Dealing with insurance, legal documents
  • Preparing new rooms for service
  • Showing rooms
  • Advertising
That's just how it is.. As a manager, you can certainly complain to your manager about problems going on in the company, but understand that he might judge you for not being able to handle such a problem on your own.

If you, as a Manager, are having a hard time getting along with some other Manager, you're probably going to have to handle it, with politics and conflicts of interests.
You'll need to be extra careful during negotiations with that person and make sure you don't get some problems for your team in the future.
And depending on the company structure, that might happen either very rarely, or every single day. Just like with good and bad roommates.

2018-02-28

Study Review: Heterogeneous metabolic adaptation of C57BL/6J mice to high-fat diet

Study: http://www.physiology.org/doi/pdf/10.1152/ajpendo.00332.2001

Energy Macro Percent Usage
DietCarbsFatsProtein
"Normal Chow"60%12%28%
"High Fat"<1%72%28%

Historical chart shows the high fat diet increased weight gain, glucose, insulin, and AUCs.
CriteriaScoreComments
One Constant Macro****Protein matches. Point off for no food source.
Constant Nutrients + Fiber*Not documented.
Number of animals per diet*****15-25
Length of Study**9 months
Funding Bias*****Grant by Swiss National Science Foundation and the Juvenile Diabetes Foundation International
Total3.4Fair Quality Study

Study Review: Differential effects of saturated versus unsaturated dietary fatty acids on weight gain and myocellular lipid profiles in mice

Study: https://www.nature.com/articles/nutd20117.pdf

Energy Macro Percent Usage
DietCarbsFatsProtein
D12450B70%10%20%
D1245135%45%20%
The D12451 diet was customized with varying types of fat.

Historical charts show body weight lower for Low Fat Diet, and High Fat Cocoa Butter diet. Body weight is highest for Palm Oil, then Olive Oil, then Safflower Oil.

One Constant Macro*****Protein does not change at all.
Constant Nutrients + Fiber****Vitamins and Minerals stayed the same. Diets were customized beyond standard datasheet availability. Unable to determine if the custom diets had modified carb types.
Number of animals per diet**6 mice per diet. (5 diets total)
Length of Study*8 weeks
Funding Bias**Grant from "Top Institute Food and Nutrition", which partners with Kellogg's, Nestle, Pepsico.
Total2.8Poor Quality Study

Study Review: Diet-induced type II diabetes in C57BL/6J mice

Study: https://www.academia.edu/13414214/Diet-induced_type_II_diabetes_in_C57BL_6J_mice

Energy Macro Percent Usage
DietCarbsFatsProtein
Purina Rodent Chow58%13.5%28.5%
High Fat26.7%35.8%14.9%

Charts show blood glucose, body weight, and insulin levels where all worse for mice on the "high carb high fat" diet.

One Constant Macro*All macros change by more than 10%.
Constant Nutrients + Fiber*All three macros changed significantly. They incorrectly called the diet "High Carb High Fat". The "Standard Diet's" carbs where "Complex Carbohydrates" and higher fiber, while the "High Carb High Fat" carbs where "simple carbohydates" and low fiber.
Number of animals per diet*****Although multiple mice breeds were used, there were 18 - 20 mice per diet.
Length of Study**24 weeks
Funding Bias*****Grants from various health based organizations. Food industry not involved.
Total2.8Poor Quality Study

2018-02-27

Study Review: A Low Carbohydrate, High Protein Diet Slows Tumor Growth and Prevents Cancer Initiation

Study: http://cancerres.aacrjournals.org/content/canres/71/13/4484.full.pdf

Energy Macro Percent Usage
DietCarbsFatsProtein
Western 505855.2%21.6%23.2%
High Protein15.6%26.2%58.2%

Historical charts show blood glucose, body weight, insulin levels, and longevity, where all better in mice that had the low carb diet.

One Constant Macro***Fat had a 4.6% difference.
Constant Nutrients + Fiber**TestDiet.com did not have the "Western 5058" nor "CHO" nutrition available. Point given since both diets come from the same vendor.
Number of animals per diet***10 - 11 animals per diet
Length of Study*****2.7 years. Includes the animal's whole life span.
Funding Bias*****Grants from various cancer organizations. Food industry not involved.
Total3.6Fair Quality Study

2018-02-26

Scoring Animal Nutrition Studies

Human studies on food intake, are quite limiting. Human subjects:
  • Cannot be controlled or monitored 24 hours a day on their food intake.
  • May cheat, intentionally or accidentally, snacking on non-diet foods.
  • Prefer a diverse range of foods. They may stop participating in the study simply because they don't like eating the same food all day, every day.
  • Expect a diet to be a short term experiment, not a long lifestyle change.
All of these factors make human studies provide poor quality data.

Instead, many studies are done on animals, especially rodents.
Rodents' diets can be controlled and monitored for their entire lifespan.

Although their digestive system may differ from humans', rodents have the ability to get cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and other forms of metabolic syndrome, allowing us to draw analogs of general causes of such diseases.


Unfortunately, almost all animal studies that I have reviewed, were flawed.

Any setup information that was not discussed in detail, is frequently poorly handled.
Researchers spend much more time examining and discussing the results of the study, rather than making sure their initial setup was well done.

Students are often pushed to write as many papers as possible, leading them to cut the experiments short.
Instead of studying the long term mortality effects of a particular diet, researchers frequently stop the experiment and draw conclusions from data that was as little as 3 weeks long.

As a result, many articles end up being a big waste of grant money, and provide much confusion for the scientific community.
Although animal food intake research has been going on for centuries, with the ongoing conflicts in observations, very few substantial conclusions have been made.


Initially I wanted to write up a post, what would be a "gold standard" article. A study that would be able to overcome the usual conflicting arguments involved in research, and really make a difference in science.
But then I realized I can do something even better..
Inspired by Cornucopia's Egg Scorecard, I decided to dedicate my time to "grading" animal food intake research articles.
I will taking into account factors like: the nutritional intake being similar between the different experimental diets, the length of the experiment, and conflicts of interest from funding bias.

The hope is that over time, if someone emails you a study, you'd be able to look it up on my scorecard, and be able to quickly judge the value of that article.

The permanent link to the list of articles is here:
https://veniaminilmer.blogspot.com/p/animal-studies.html

I am looking for high quality studies to add to the list.
Have a link to a good study? Please send it my way.
Just make sure the article is a free publicly available paper, that involves animal food intake, experimenting with different diets.

2018-02-25

Study Review: Changes in Gut Microbiota Control Metabolic Endotoxemia-Induced Inflammation in High-Fat Diet–Induced Obesity and Diabetes in Mice

Study: http://diabetes.diabetesjournals.org/content/diabetes/57/6/1470.full.pdf

Energy Macro Percent Usage
DietCarbsFatsProtein
A0472.4%8.4%19.3%
High Fat<1%72%28%

CriteriaScoreComments
One Constant Macro*Protein changes by 8.7%
Constant Nutrients + Fiber*Not Documented
Number of animals per diet****13 - 17
Length of Study*4 weeks
Funding Bias****Grant by various French government organizations.
However, there is a questionable "Nutritia Foundation".
Total2.2Poor Quality Study

Study Review: Defining high-fat-diet rat models: metabolic and molecular effects of different fat types

Study: http://cancerres.aacrjournals.org/content/canres/71/13/4484.full.pdf

Energy Macro Percent Usage
DietCarbsFatsProtein
Normal65%11%24%
High Fat36%45%19%

CriteriaScoreComments
One Constant Macro***Protein changes by 5%
Constant Nutrients + Fiber*Carb Types, Vitamins, Minerals, Fatty Acids, and Amino Acids all changed.
Number of animals per diet***"6–12 animals"
Length of Study**12 weeks
Funding Bias*****Grant provided by Else Kröner-Fresenius Foundation
The food industry was not involved.
Total2.8Poor Quality Study

Study Review: Metabolic Evidence for Adaptation to a High Protein Diet in Rats

Study: https://academic.oup.com/jn/article-pdf/131/1/91/24019379/4w010100091.pdf

Energy Macro Percent Usage
DietCarbsFatsProtein
Normal Diet (P14)75.9%9.4%14.7%
High Protein (P50)38%9.4%52%

Charts show food intake and weight gain was slightly lower in the protein based diet than in the carb based diet.

CriteriaScoreComments
One Constant Macro*****Fat did not change.
Constant Nutrients + Fiber*****Same Vitamins and Minerals. Carb, Fat, and Protein type stayed the same.
Number of animals per diet***8 mice were used per diet.
Length of Study*21 days.
Funding Bias*****Research was done by the Institut national agronomique Paris Grignon
Total3.8Fair Quality Study